“There has been a big push to develop alternative forms of energy–so-called green energy–from renewable sources. That’s a big mistake. To begin with, the whole push for renewable energy is being driven by the wrong motivation, the mistaken belief that global climate change is being caused by carbon emissions. If you don’t buy that–and I don’t–then what we have is really just an expensive way of making the tree-huggers feel good about themselves.” Crippled America – Donald Trump
Of course, it is only conjecture that a lame duck 2016 Congress and a 2017 Republican Congress and President will not renew the Federal Tax Credit on geothermal heat pumps that was established in 2009 and sunsets on December 31st, 2016. However, if I was a betting man, I’d say that the geothermal HVAC manufacturer’s will be seeing sales dip significantly starting now. Without the 30% Federal Incentive, it will be very hard to convince residential consumers that geothermal will make sense based purely upon economics. We can tout the environmental benefits all that we want, but most consumers are driven by their pocketbooks first and their conscience second.
“Among all the gifts that God gave to America was an abundant supply of natural energy. According to the Department of Energy, the natural gas reserves we have in the ground could supply our energy needs for centuries.” Crippled America – Donald Trump
The Donald believes in energy independence by drilling for oil and natural gas everywhere and anywhere first and then figuring out the rest later. In a now famous Tweet, Trump said that the concept of climate change was created by the Chinese to suppress the U.S. economy, so clearly his administration does not believe that geothermal heating and cooling is an essential component to becoming energy independent while reducing carbon gases. Why then would he push for the renewal of Federal Tax incentives?
Unfortunately, the people have spoken with their vote and they have resoundingly responded that correcting climate change should not be a priority over increased economic growth and a conservative world order. This will cost many who have built their businesses upon geothermal HVAC manufacturing and contracting solely in the wake of what they hoped would be an increasingly renewable energy conscious world.
Perhaps the pendulum will swing back after 4 or 8 years, but the market for geothermal HVAC and even higher efficiency conventional HVAC would appear to be in hiatus for the near future.
Please note that these are my personal speculations and that I would be happy to be proven incorrect.